⚽ Mundial 2026 — Predictions Dashboard

✅ LAST SETTLED — JULY 9 · Quarterfinal (1 match)

▸ ✅ Settled (1)

🇫🇷 France vs 🇲🇦 Morocco

July 9, 2026 · 23:00 (Athens) · Gillette Stadium Boston · Quarterfinal

🇫🇷 2-0 🇲🇦 FT 🏆 QUARTERFINAL

🇫🇷 France

🏆 FIFA #1 · Group I winners (9 pts)

👤 Didier Deschamps (confirmed this is his last World Cup in charge)

⭐ Kylian Mbappé (captain, France's all-time top scorer), Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Bradley Barcola

📊 Beat Senegal, Iraq, Norway 4-1 in the group — then beat Paraguay 1-0 (Mbappé penalty) in Round of 16

🚑 Hugo Ekitike out for the rest of the tournament (ruptured Achilles) — squad depth player, not a starter

📌 Scored 10 goals from just 6.1 xG in the group stage — significantly overperforming, a real regression risk despite the perfect record

🇲🇦 Morocco

🏆 FIFA #7 · Group C runners-up · 2022 semi-finalists, reigning AFCON 2025 champions

👤 Mohamed Ouahbi (first senior head-coach job, appointed March 2026)

⭐ Achraf Hakimi, Yassine Bounou (GK), Sofyan Amrabat, Ayoub El Kaabi (12 goals in 14 league games this season)

📊 Held Brazil to a draw in the group — then beat Netherlands on penalties (R32) and Canada 3-0 (Ounahi brace + Rahimi) in Round of 16

🚑 Ismaël Saibari (thigh, minor) and Chadi Riad (not 100%) both doubts — coach says "no risk," status to be confirmed closer to kickoff

📌 Underlying numbers (5.9 xG/2.9 xGA) are close to France's (6.1/2.7) — much tighter gap than the reputations suggest, and Morocco's record isn't inflated by lucky finishing the way France's is

H2HNo significant recent head-to-head between the sides

Odds

1.62

FRA

3.85

5.80

MAR

Predictions

Site	Pick	Odds	Result
Betarades	1 & Over 1.5	2.05	✓ WIN
BetOnArme	G/G	1.95	✗ LOSE
Sports Mole ★	Correct Score 1-0 France (AET)	—	✗ LOSE
Foxbet	Morocco +1 Asian HCP	1.83	✗ LOSE
Kingbet	G/G	2.03	✗ LOSE

Final: France 2-0 Morocco. Mbappé missed a first-half penalty but scored the opener in the 60th minute and added an assist; Dembélé made it 2-0 in the 66th. France dominated from start to finish — Morocco barely created a chance all match, a much more one-sided game than the pre-match xG gap suggested. Betarades' France Win & Over 1.5 landed clean. Every G/G pick (BetOnArme, Kingbet) busted since Morocco never scored; Foxbet's Morocco +1 Asian Handicap lost outright (Morocco lost by 2, handicap only covers a 1-goal loss); Sports Mole's 1-0 AET correct score missed both the scoreline and the need for extra time.

My pick: ✗ LOSE France 1X (Double Chance) & Both Teams to Score (G/G) Yes @1.95, combined ≈2.24. The 1X leg won (France won outright) but G/G lost — Morocco never scored. In hindsight, the original pre-match pick (Mbappé Anytime Goalscorer) would have hit, since Mbappé did score. Kept for the record as a lesson: don't flip an already-reasoned pick based on continued discussion this close to kickoff — see updated process notes.

🟢 TODAY — JULY 10 · Quarterfinal (1 match)

▸ ⏱ Open (1)

🇪🇸 Spain vs 🇧🇪 Belgium

July 10, 2026 · 22:00 (Athens) · SoFi Stadium Los Angeles · Quarterfinal

⏱ 10/7 🏆 QUARTERFINAL 🔥 4/5 Spain

🇪🇸 Spain

🏆 FIFA #2 · Euro 2024 Champions · Group H winners

👤 Luis de la Fuente

⭐ Mikel Oyarzabal (4 goals, top scorer), Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Mikel Merino

📊 9 goals in 5 games this tournament — beat Austria 3-0 (R32), Portugal 1-0 (Merino stoppage-time header, R16)

🚑 Nico Williams still out (tournament-ending injury from the group stage)

📌 Clean sheet in all 5 matches so far — a Spanish national-team World Cup record, and genuinely elite process (0.7 xGA in the group stage, not just fortunate)

🇧🇪 Belgium

🏆 FIFA Top 10 · "Red Devils" · Group G winners

👤 Rudi Garcia

⭐ Kevin De Bruyne, Thibaut Courtois (GK), Romelu Lukaku (8 WC goals — level with Maradona, Völler, Rivaldo)

📊 13 goals in 5 games (tournament's most productive attack among the final 8) — beat New Zealand (R32), USA 4-1 (R16)

🚑 Amadou Onana confirmed out; Doku a fitness doubt

📌 Shakier defense (5 conceded in 5 games) — group-stage xG (6.8/2.1) still underperformed on goals scored (6), so more scoring is plausible, but so is conceding against a side this sharp in front of goal

H2HNo significant recent head-to-head between the sides

Odds

1.67

ESP

3.85

5.20

BEL

Predictions

Site	Pick	Odds
Betarades	1 & Over 1.5	2.05
BetOnArme	Over 2.5	1.80
Sports Mole ★	Correct Score 1-0 Spain	—
Foxbet	1 (Spain win, 90')	1.70
Kingbet	1 (Spain win)	1.62

All 5 sites now in. 🔥 4/5 sites back a straight Spain win — Betarades (1&O1.5 @2.05), Foxbet (1 in 90' @1.70), Kingbet (1 @1.62), and Sports Mole's model (Correct Score 1-0 Spain) all agree; only BetOnArme breaks from the pack with Over 2.5 goals @1.80, betting on both teams' attacking output rather than picking a side. Live market odds (Stoiximan: Spain 1.67 / Draw 3.85 / Belgium 5.20, ~60%/26%/19% implied) back the same lean. Spain have the standout record of the tournament — clean sheet in all 5 matches, a national-team World Cup first, backed by real process (0.7 xGA, not luck). Belgium counter with the most goals of any team left (13 in 5) but a shakier defense (5 conceded) — real attacking threat, but this is a strong tipster consensus against them.

My pick: Spain 1X (Double Chance) & Mikel Oyarzabal Anytime Goalscorer @1.87 (both Stoiximan, real confirmed odds) — combined ≈2.17. Went through several revisions on this one: Clean Sheet fought Belgium's real attacking threat (13 goals in 5 games); Over 2.5 fought Spain's own low-scoring win pattern (their 1X case rests on a defense that tends to produce 1-0/2-0 wins, not shootouts); Spain Over 0.5 was the highest-probability option (~85%) but its combined price (≈1.33) fell below our 1.40 minimum-odds floor. Oyarzabal anytime — Spain's top scorer with 4 goals — is the one leg that doesn't fight any part of the case for Spain, and clears the floor comfortably.