🇪🇸 Spain
🏆 FIFA #2 · Euro 2024 Champions · Group H winners
👤 Luis de la Fuente
⭐ Mikel Oyarzabal (4 goals, top scorer), Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Mikel Merino
📊 9 goals in 5 games this tournament — beat Austria 3-0 (R32), Portugal 1-0 (Merino stoppage-time header, R16)
🚑 Nico Williams still out (tournament-ending injury from the group stage)
📌 Clean sheet in all 5 matches so far — a Spanish national-team World Cup record, and genuinely elite process (0.7 xGA in the group stage, not just fortunate)
🇧🇪 Belgium
🏆 FIFA Top 10 · "Red Devils" · Group G winners
👤 Rudi Garcia
⭐ Kevin De Bruyne, Thibaut Courtois (GK), Romelu Lukaku (8 WC goals — level with Maradona, Völler, Rivaldo)
📊 13 goals in 5 games (tournament's most productive attack among the final 8) — beat New Zealand (R32), USA 4-1 (R16)
🚑 Amadou Onana confirmed out; Doku a fitness doubt
📌 Shakier defense (5 conceded in 5 games) — group-stage xG (6.8/2.1) still underperformed on goals scored (6), so more scoring is plausible, but so is conceding against a side this sharp in front of goal
H2HNo significant recent head-to-head between the sides
Predictions
| Site | Pick | Odds | Result |
|---|
| Betarades | 1 & Over 1.5 | 2.05 | ✓ WIN |
| BetOnArme | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | ✓ WIN |
| Sports Mole ★ | Correct Score 1-0 Spain | — | ✗ LOSE |
| Foxbet | 1 (Spain win, 90') | 1.70 | ✓ WIN |
| Kingbet | 1 (Spain win) | 1.62 | ✓ WIN |
Final: Spain 2-1 Belgium. Fabián Ruiz opened the scoring after half an hour; Charles De Ketelaere equalized in the 41st — Spain's first goal conceded of the entire tournament, ending their 5-match clean sheet record; Mikel Merino grabbed the 88th-minute winner off a goalkeeping error to send Spain through. A much tighter, more open game than the tipster consensus expected — Belgium's attacking threat was real after all. Betarades, BetOnArme, Foxbet, and Kingbet all cashed on the Spain win; Sports Mole's 1-0 correct score missed both the scoreline and the fact Belgium scored at all.
My pick: ✗ LOSE Spain 1X (Double Chance) & Mikel Oyarzabal Anytime Goalscorer @1.87, combined ≈2.17. The 1X leg won (Spain won outright) but Oyarzabal didn't score — Fabián Ruiz and Merino did instead. Second straight My Pick loss: this time the concern about Belgium's attacking threat that got weighed against G/G for this match actually materialized (Belgium did score), which would have made G/G the better leg here — the opposite lesson from France-Morocco. Read together, both results say the same thing: single-match hindsight shouldn't override the process — over a small sample, either companion type can lose to variance.